Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) - International Service: 16 days have passed since the beginning of the ground operation of the Zionist regime army in Lebanon, for the first time part of the conflicts are going on inside the Lebanese territory. Until now, Israel, either in search of "identification with war" or in search of "capturing the bridgehead", intended to enter parts of Lebanon's territory, which had not been able to follow the war inside Lebanon's territory due to the resistance forces standing, and every time He had voluntarily turned back or been pushed back.

Until a few days ago, the Zionist army was fighting in the north with its 4 divisions: the 98th, 91st, 36th and 146th divisions. A few days ago, the 210th division was added to this combat organization from the Golan. These five divisions are stationed along the border with Lebanon and during these 16 days, they have made attempts to enter Lebanese territory from 6 points.

In the first phase, most of the efforts were focused on the Udaisah-Kafarkala axis (in the eastern part of the front). After a few days, part of the efforts were transferred to the middle front and the axis of Yarun-Marun al-Ross. The Israelis also made efforts in the area of ​​Ras Naqura-Al-Labonah (in the west of the front and along the coast) and a conflict with UNIFIL forces took place in the same area. In each of these axes, there were several attempts to advance by Israel, all of which were accompanied by very heavy artillery fire and dozens of air attacks on these axes.

 

The new tactic of the Israeli army in ground operations

But since a few days ago, the Zionist army has adopted a new tactic and this tactic has been successful to some extent at the current stage. (I will mention some points about the success or not of this tactic from a strategic point of view at the end.) Before this, Israel was trying to capture the border settlements and settle in these settlements, and while destroying Hezbollah's infrastructure in There, place that place as the bridgehead for the next advance. But the new tactic is to leave the border settlements and try to bypass them and reach the heights behind these settlements.

In this way, Israel can both cut off the aid lines of these border settlements and make it more difficult for the defenders of these settlements with the nobles of fire. In addition, the advance on the Lebanese soil will be psychologically traumatic for the defense forces and on the other hand, it will provide a higher morale for the Israelis.

In the field of media war, the introduction of "new names" as the advancing points of Israel and the publication of some photos of the Israeli army forces in these new cities will provide a kind of peace of mind for the domestic front of Israel, and at the global level, the image of "Israel advancing" and victory" (it is natural that the general audience of these news will not have the leisure and interest and the possibility to check each and every news and locate these names and will not find out if this advance is, for example, 50 kilometers or 500 Km.
Qozeh, the first place to use the new tactic

The first region is Qozeh. This settlement is located in the northwest of Aita Shaab and northeast of Ramya. Although Israel was successful in advancing within Ramya for about 1000 meters and even reached its municipal building (although subsequent news indicated that Israeli forces had returned behind the border point), it did not succeed to the same extent in Aita al-Sha'ab. By crossing the border, the Israeli forces, at the same time with heavy air and artillery attacks, sought to find a hole in the lines of the defense forces in the "surroundings" of Aita al-Sha'ab in order to reach this important border city. So far, they have not been successful in this regard.

Therefore, the Israelis try to reach Qozeh by bypassing Eita Shaab and Ramya. Qozeh is about 730 meters above sea level, and Israeli control over it will bring Eita Shaab, Beit Leif, Ramya and the Christian settlement of Ramish (which has adopted an anti-Israel position in the current war) under the fire of the attacking forces. It will also provide the possibility of encircling Aita al-Shaab (from the north) for the forces of the Zionist regime.

Clashes continue in Qozeh and reports of Israeli army casualties in the area are more than many expected. What has become clear in Israel's advances, whether around the cities or trying to take heights like Kouzeh, is not only that the work of advancing is more difficult than what the Israelis expected, but also that even the forces supporting the resistance did not expect that the advances of a few hundred meters to two Three kilometers of the Israeli army in Lebanese territory should be accompanied by this slowness and this number of dead and wounded. Of course, in any case, it should not be forgotten that Qozeh, with all the hardships that Israel endures to "reach" it, is only less than three kilometers away from the border.

 

Trying to reach the litany through the Lord's Prayer

Another point where the aforementioned tactic is used and it seems to be a more important point is located on the eastern front. From Monday, Mehr 23rd, the Israelis managed to reach the heights around the village of Rab-e-Tulsain by bypassing the village of Al-Adisa. Until the moment of writing these lines, the position of the Zionist regime army has not been established in Rab-al-Thazain (although there is a high probability that it will be established in the coming days) and the clashes have been going on for three days.

Rab al-Thalasin is approximately 700 meters above sea level and its distance from the border zero point is about 1000 meters. On the left side of this settlement is the al-Salluqi plain. By focusing on the Lord of the Thirteenth, one can have some respect for cities such as Misra, Al-Qantara, Tayyaba and Al-Adisa. Naturally, part of the Zionist regime's effort to dominate this point is related to its height.

But the attempt to master the Lord of the 30s probably has another reason. One of the historical goals of Israel in its attacks on Lebanon (in 1978, 1982, 1993, 1996 and the 33-day war in 2006) is always to push back the resistance forces (previously the Palestinian resistance forces present in Lebanon and later, Hezbollah) to the Litani River (that is, approximately It was 40 kilometers from the western and central part of the border.

But this river is not 40 km away from the border everywhere. If we consider the eastern part of the border between Lebanon and Palestine, the distance between the Litani river and the border will be only about 3 kilometers.

With this in mind, if the Israeli forces can advance in this axis, they will reach the Litani coast by traveling less than 5 kilometers and while cutting off (or making the connection between) the Bekaa and the south (which, in their view, is probably a part of the resistance relief line) constitutes), have also achieved a tactical-media victory. It is believed that in that case they will spread the news that Israeli forces are located on Litani beach and that Hezbollah has not been able to stop the advance of the Israelis.

If we consider such a goal as possible for the Zionist army, we can also predict the path of Israel's efforts for future advances. Probably, Israel will move from there to the city of Tayyaba after taking control of Rab-e-Tulsain (which is not impossible considering Israel's facilities, but it will not be easy and inexpensive). By reviewing what has been seen from the resistance forces in these two weeks, it can be predicted that the conflict in Tayyaba will be even more intense than the conflict in places like Kafarkala and Al-Adisa. In this case, it is not unlikely that the Israeli forces will try to reach Deir Mimas (that is, the turning point of the Litani River to the west) from the distance between Kafarkala and Tayyaba. However, in this case, the possibility will be provided to them from both sides and they will probably experience many difficult days.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that these possible advances may be accompanied by an attempt to advance from the Golan-Lebanon border area, so that with the addition of a new front, the strength of the defense forces on the border will decrease. (This could be due to the Israelis' misunderstanding of the divisions of Hezbollah's defense forces at the border points. The divisions of Hezbollah's units are not such that one unit is responsible for defending two points, and an attack on those two points will weaken its strength.)
Attack from the Golan?

In any case, in the last two-three days, the 210th division of the Israeli army, which is considered the division dedicated to the Golan, has been added to the divisions involved in the Lebanon operation. This division has mostly a defensive function, but a mountain combat unit located in this division can help the attacking forces in the ongoing battles in the harsh heights of Lebanon. The news of the removal of minefields on the Golan-Lebanon border and the heavy bombing of the two towns of Shaba'a and Kafr Shoba reinforces the possibility of a ground attack from this point in the current days.

 

How important are Israel's advances?

In general, all the advances of the Zionist army cannot be considered unimportant. However, slow and small advances, if continued, together can form big advances. But we must also see the other side of reality. Hezbollah is a paramilitary group and does not have government facilities. Hezbollah does not have any planes or even helicopters. Arming the land and forming defense lines (with embankments, canals, etc.) which are carried out by the armies in the battle lines, is basically not possible for Hezbollah in a classic way. On the other hand, the Israeli army has the strongest air force in West Asia and its ground force is also classified as one of the strongest forces in the world in terms of facilities and technology.

With this account, it was expected that Israel would advance much faster than these in Lebanon, and at least, as in the 33-day war, in almost 10 days, after passing through all these areas, it reached the vicinity of Nabatieh (Wadi Al-Hajir), this time with a faster speed. do the work However, the type of Hezbollah's defensive response has changed the analysis of many international observers.

It was believed that after successive intelligence-operational strikes on the heart of Hezbollah, and then unprecedented airstrikes on what were believed to be the Hizb's weapons and ammunition depots, this group had completely lost its chain of command and control. But on the very first day of the ground attack in Al-Adisah axis, it became clear that this idea was completely wrong. Hezbollah, which succeeded in defeating Israel with only a few thousand troops in the 33-day war, currently has at least 100,000 combat-experienced troops (combat-experienced in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq). The network of tunnels and the chain of ammunition depots of the party have also been developing in the last 18 years. Hezbollah has the strength, command, and equipment necessary for a long-term guerrilla war. It is interesting that despite several successful assassinations by Israel, the commanders of Hezbollah units have not been seriously harmed, and even many of them are considered to be the first generation of the party (and with very long experience).

 

What if Israel advances tens of kilometers?

But the most important point is something else. Although Hezbollah has "almost" pinned down Israel on the border (or at least its movement is much slower than all predictions), basically this party is not supposed to "maintain the line" like a classical army and not allow the enemy to pass. The function of guerrilla warfare is to attack the enemy and take the highest casualties from him continuously. That is, even if the Israeli army advances 30 kilometers into Lebanese territory and captures dozens of villages, cities and towns in the south of Litani, no negative score will be recorded in Hezbollah's record, because its defined function is inherently different (just like advancing the enemy In the territory of a country, it will not be a negative score for the navy of that country because another function is defined for it.)

According to this point, it becomes clear that every single day of Hezbollah's resistance in the front line and preventing the advance of the enemy is actually an "extraordinary" work and a major success, and even if it is not, Hezbollah's main battle (taking casualties and entering causing damage to enemy equipment in Lebanese soil) will begin. And by the way, this is what Hezbollah has been preparing for for many years.

If we add this to the continuation (and increase in the slope) of Hezbollah's rocket and drone fire, which without stopping, has involved almost 60 kilometers in the north of Palestine, and if it continues for one or two months, it can be very traumatic for Israel's internal front and even displacement If a part of the residents of the north is followed, then we will admit that Hizbollah has been completely successful so far and the actual advances of Israel have not had a strategic effect for the victory of this regime, at least for the time being. Especially since the main goal of this regime since the beginning of the attack on Lebanon was to return the refugees to the north of Palestine, and with the current situation, these refugees have not even taken a step closer to their usurped homes and settlements.

Source: Tasnim